NEW DELHI: Smartphones, the backbone of India’s electronic goods industry, are expected to take the steepest sales hit in a decade during the festive season this year, when shopping reaches its peak.
After an expected decline in laptop sales, smartphone sales are likely to fall sharply in this quarter, with high prices of memory chips making even the most affordable devices 40% more expensive. This would be the worst level of sales for India’s $45 billion smartphone economy since September 2016.
The volume of smartphones sold in the July-September quarter is projected to decline 25% to about 36 million units from 48 million a year earlier, according to data collated from independent third-party market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) India. The bulk of goods such as smartphones, smart TVs and laptops are sold during the September-November festive season of Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali.
At the centre of this decline is the global memory crisis, which has led to constricted smartphone supplies and higher prices that have forced many buyers to either delay purchases or consider refurbished devices. On 10 August, Mint reported that demand for Apple’s used iPhones continues to increase in India, despite prices almost doubling over the past year.
“Now, this festive season we’re staring at a 25% decline driven by a multitude of market factors. The smartphone market under ₹15,000 in India, which accounts for more than half the devices sold here, no longer have enough options for buyers. Alongside this, phones have become sturdier, and buyers are continuing to increase the usage lifespan of smartphones in India—putting their purchases off for the time being,” said Navkendar Singh, associate vice-president at IDC India. “India will continue to face a steep downward spiral for the smartphone market, which could lead to sales as low as 124 million units for the full year.”
Faisal Kawoosa, founder at electronics consultancy firm Techarc, said India’s market could be in for a prolonged phase of weakness well into 2027.
“What the industry will now hinge upon is its ability to bounce back from a very weak year. But for now, this festive quarter is certain to see a steep impact,” Kawoosa said.
Much of the impact is being felt in the ongoing quarter, which last year grew 4%, driven by a rise in demand for premium smartphones—especially Apple’s iPhones. Apple registered a record fourth place in terms of sales volumes in the September quarter last year, driven by strong discounts on its older iPhones.
But that’s not happening this year. Apple increased prices of its one-year-old iPhone 17 by 20% to ₹99,900 on 9 September. Prices of the iPhone 16, which was launched in September 2024 at ₹79,900, were increased 12.5% to ₹89,900. Discounts on third-party platforms such as Amazon are few and far between.
IDC’s Singh expects Apple’s iPhone sales won’t grow this festive season.
Smartphones by Vivo, Oppo, Realme and Xiaomi, which accounted for 51% of all phones sold in 2025’s festive quarter, have become almost 40% more expensive—and more in some cases, according to market data tabulated by the All-India Mobile Retailers Association (Aimra) and reviewed by Mint.
Detailed questionnaires emailed to Vivo, Oppo, Realme and Xiaomi did not receive responses until publishing time.
Kailash Lakhyani, founding chairperson of Aimra, said that it has written to most smartphone makers in the country, inquiring about short supplies and lack of discounts.
“The festive period is crucial for retailers as this is when they earn most of their annual profits. Without this season, retailers will either be forced to shut down or diversify to other categories. Many are doing so already,” he said.
