Reliance Industries could generate nearly ₹5,700 crore in additional EBITDA from its O2C business in the September quarter as Europe’s diesel shortage lifts refining margins. Jamnagar’s export-duty advantage and higher crude-processing volumes are expected to help the segment contribute nearly three-fourths of the conglomerate’s incremental operating earnings.
This could mark a significant shift in Reliance’s earnings mix, with refining contributing more to incremental growth than the company’s digital business during the quarter.
“Reliance is well placed to benefit from tight global supplies of diesel and aviation fuel. Jamnagar’s scale and flexibility allow it to adjust crude sourcing and direct products to markets where returns are strongest, while the SEZ refinery’s exemption from export levies provides an additional advantage,” said Kranti Bathini of WealthMills.
Nuvama Institutional Equities estimates O2C EBITDA at ₹20,700 crore, up 38 per cent year-on-year from ₹15,008 crore and 22 per cent sequentially from ₹17,010 crore in the June quarter. The projected ₹5,700-crore increase would account for around 73 per cent of Reliance’s estimated ₹7,800-crore rise in consolidated core EBITDA to ₹53,700 crore.
The opportunity became evident in July when Reliance loaded an estimated 4-5 million barrels of diesel from Jamnagar for European destinations, marking its highest monthly shipment level in ten months.
European diesel margins and international gasoil prices surged in late July amid supply disruptions, Saudi refinery outages, Russian export restrictions and tightening inventories across Europe. Reliance responded by increasing the share of middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel in its output mix, leveraging Jamnagar’s operational flexibility to capture higher international realisations.
Jamnagar’s ability to process a wide range of crude grades and alter product yields enables Reliance to respond quickly to market opportunities, though profitability ultimately depends on feedstock costs, freight rates and operating expenses.
Reliance’s 35.2 million tonne-per-year special economic zone (SEZ) refinery is exempt from export duties, unlike its 33 million tonne domestic tariff area (DTA) refinery and other taxable exporters.
Diesel export duties ranged between ₹8.50 and ₹25.50 a litre during the July-September quarter. At the peak rate, the levy translates to roughly ₹4,055 per barrel, creating a significant difference in net export realisations.
While the exemption enhances export profitability, the expected year-on-year earnings improvement is being driven primarily by stronger refining margins and higher throughput rather than the tax benefit alone.
Nuvama expects Reliance’s crude throughput to rise about 10 per cent sequentially to nearly 20 million tonnes following maintenance shutdowns in the June quarter. Favourable ethane-cracking economics could support earnings, although weaker petrochemical spreads and the diversion of propane and butane to domestic LPG production may offset some of the gains.
“Stronger refining earnings could provide Reliance with another growth engine alongside its digital business. The extent to which these gains translate into earnings will depend on throughput levels, feedstock and freight costs, and the performance of the broader O2C portfolio,” Bathini said.
Nuvama expects Jio’s EBITDA to rise 16 per cent to ₹21,900 crore, while retail and oil-and-gas EBITDA could decline 1 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. Consolidated net profit is projected to grow 15 per cent to ₹20,900 crore.
Although the diesel export levy was reduced to ₹16 a litre from October 1, brokerages expect global refining margins to remain above $10 a barrel over the medium term, potentially sustaining earnings momentum for Reliance’s refining business even as petrochemical markets remain under pressure.
Published on October 9, 2026
