Nearly 451,000 additional deaths could occur worldwide over the next six months because of the ongoing “Super El Niño”, compared with a normal year, according to a University of study released on Wednesday. The projection includes around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India.
The study warned that India could see a significant share of these deaths during the winter months, with the impact expected to continue into the country’s summer.
“For India, nearly half of those deaths fall in just three months – December to February. The toll is not expected to stop there, with these deaths projected to keep rising into India’s summer,” said the study.
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon caused by the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern It generally occurs every two to seven years and can influence rainfall and temperatures across different parts of the world.
The phenomenon is linked to weakening trade winds and can continue for up to 12 months. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that this year’s El Niño could be exceptionally strong, potentially reaching levels not seen since modern monitoring began.
The Climate Impact Lab study at the University of Chicago estimated that average land temperatures worldwide could remain 1.2°C above normal during the coming months.
El Niño began in June and is expected to continue until the spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The researchers said the unusually warm conditions could resemble temperatures that climate change is expected to bring around 20 years from now.
The study also projected a 44% increase in the number of extremely hot days compared with what would normally be expected.
The assessment estimated 451,000 additional deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with countries in the Global South expected to face a particularly heavy burden.
The researchers said targeted emergency measures could prevent tens of thousands of deaths. These could include heat alerts, outreach programmes for vulnerable people, cooling centres, hydration stations, better protection for outdoor workers and additional capacity in healthcare systems.
“The 451,000 deaths projected to occur during the first half of El Niño alone are about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood,” the study said.
The flash floods and debris flows on August 26 destroyed the Gyirong Port on the China-Nepal border and affected several settlements along a 72-km stretch of Nepal’s Trishuli River.
The study also identified areas where the largest number of additional deaths could occur over the next six months.
Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, is projected to record around 66,800 additional deaths. Nigeria alone could account for approximately 31,400 of these deaths.
Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, could see another 19,400 deaths, according to the assessment.
Indonesia is projected to record around 19,300 additional deaths, while Brazil could be the worst-affected country in South America, with about 13,300 deaths linked to El Niño-related heat.
Tamma Carleton, Faculty Head of Research at the Climate Impact Lab and a co-author of the report, said immediate emergency measures could still reduce the number of deaths this year.
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting of efforts can still save many lives this year. “However, 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we do not want to be in a constant state of emergency. We need to mobilise resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
