US midterms 2026: Democrats are entering the final stretch of the 3 November US midterm elections with an ambitious target: flip at least four -held Senate seats while retaining all their existing seats to reclaim control of the upper chamber.
Several contests across the country have tightened, with Democratic candidates mounting competitive challenges in traditionally Republican states, including , Kansas and Iowa.
However, Republicans continue to hold an advantage in campaign advertising expenditure, spending $560 million compared with ‘ $521 million across 11 key races, according to AdImpact data cited by CNN.
The spending gap widens to $81 million when Georgia and North Carolina, where Republicans have significantly reduced their advertising efforts, are excluded.
US President Donald approval rating stands at 34% in CNN’s Poll of Polls average, while voter concerns over the economy, the war in Iran, and corruption have become key issues shaping the electoral contest.
CNN’s assessment of the 11 battlegrounds draws on polling, campaign spending, fundraising, conversations with strategists and the political environment in individual states. It is not a prediction of individual race winners or overall control of the Senate.
Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican nominee Michael Whatley by 14 percentage points among likely voters, according to a final High Point University/YouGov poll.
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed after JD Vance became vice president, by 50% to 45% in CNN’s polling average. Republicans nevertheless outspent Democrats approximately $141 million to $102 million in October.
Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in 32 years. While polling remains competitive, recent New York Times/Siena and CNN surveys have placed Talarico ahead.
In Maine, Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 50% to 46% in CNN’s Poll of Polls. Collins is the only Republican incumbent seeking re-election in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
Alaska is also emerging as a closely contested race. A New York Times/Siena poll puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 48% and Republican Senator Dan Sullivan at 46%. Ranked-choice voting could delay the final result by several weeks.
In Kansas, a New York Times/Siena survey showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%. Democratic groups also outspent Republicans in October, while Hamilton entered the final campaign stretch with a larger cash reserve.
Iowa remains competitive, with Democrat Josh Turek polling at 46% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45% in CNN’s polling average. Trump won the state by 13 percentage points in 2024, making it a significant challenge for Democrats.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 45% in Michigan, according to CNN’s polling average.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas leads former Republican Senator John Sununu by 12 percentage points in a University of New Hampshire poll.
South Carolina’s Senate contest has tightened, with a New York Times/Siena poll showing a statistical tie between appointed Republican Senator Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews.
Georgia has become a less promising pickup opportunity.
Other states, including Nebraska, and Minnesota, remained on the radar during the campaign but did not become fully competitive Senate races.
The results across these 11 races will be closely watched as Democrats attempt to overcome the advantage in the Senate and reshape the balance of power in Washington.
