Can tests predict your long-term risk of kidney function? If a Quora query is to be believed, a person with creatinine (1.4 mg/dL), which is considered a waste product in blood, and GFR or Glomerular Filtration Rate (39), which estimates how well the kidneys filter , was told he had a risk of dialysis. “My creatinine is 1.4, the GFR is 39 and dropping rapidly, and my nephrologist said I have nothing to worry about now, but in 10 years from now, I’ll be on dialysis. Is this true?”
We reached out to an expert to ask whether these numbers mean dialysis is inevitable in the next 10 years.
Dr Nikhil Bhasin, consultant nephrologist and renal transplant physician at Hospitals, Central, said a GFR of 39 suggests moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD Stage 3), but it does not mean dialysis is certain or that it will happen within a set timeline. “Kidney disease progresses at different rates for different people. Some individuals remain stable for years with minimal decline, especially if underlying issues are well managed. A single creatinine level of 1.4, on its own, is not alarming; trends over time matter much more than one reading,” said Dr Bhasin.
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Dr Bhasin mentioned that it could stem from the understanding that symptoms are absent and kidney function is still enough for daily needs. “The focus is on slowing progression, not preparing for failure. Early-stage CKD is mostly about preventing complications and keeping numbers stable. The reassurance likely reflects that there is a chance to manage the effectively.”
Dr Bhasin said that several factors can influence progression, including uncontrolled diabetes, high blood pressure, frequent infections, high salt intake, smoking, obesity, and certain medications like frequent painkiller use. “On the other hand, properly managing blood sugar and blood pressure, along with lifestyle changes, can significantly slow or even stop decline.”
every 3 to 6 months, maintaining healthy blood pressure, limiting salt intake, staying hydrated, and following a kidney-friendly diet are essential. “Doctors may also prescribe medications to protect kidney function. Avoiding over-the-counter painkillers and unnecessary supplements is also important. Physical activity and weight management further support kidney health.”
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