FMCG companies are heading into the festive season expecting demand growth of 9-11%, but early consumption trends suggest that consumers remain selective about where they spend, with larger baskets and higher volumes taking precedence over a broad-based willingness to pay more.
Gaurav Manchanda, founder and director of Nimida Group, which owns The Organic World and WellBe, said, “There was a clear improvement in consumer sentiment, although the recovery was not yet broad-based.”
“There is definitely a sense of improvement in consumer sentiment, but I would not describe it as an across-the-board recovery just yet. The consumer is still being quite deliberate about where they spend,” Manchanda said.
Industry estimates are currently pointing to 9-11 per cent FMCG demand growth through the August-November festive period, he said. Consumers are showing a willingness to spend on products that offer a clear value proposition, with premiumisation visible particularly among urban consumers.
“Consumers are willing to trade up when they can see a meaningful difference in quality, taste, ingredients or experience,” Manchanda said.
The trend towards higher festive consumption is also visible in larger packs and increased unit purchases rather than higher per-unit realisations, said Ashwin Shetty, vice president, growth & digital marketing, Two Brothers India Farms.
“The festive consumer doesn’t pay more per unit – our realisation per unit was flat during Navratri, but they buy more units (+20%) in bigger packs (+12%). It’s a stock-up behaviour, not a splurge behaviour,” Shetty said.
He said premiumisation and value consumption were not necessarily contradictory trends. “Within the festive fortnight, there’s no trade-up; the mix actually shifts slightly toward value. But structurally, over twelve months, premium and convenience are steadily growing,” he said.
This is also reflected in the broader pricing environment, where companies are attempting to absorb part of the rise in input costs rather than pass on the entire increase to consumers during the festive period.
“We have been fairly measured on pricing. The objective has been to absorb as much of the input-cost pressure as we reasonably can through efficiencies, product mix and operational measures rather than immediately passing the entire increase on to the consumer,” Manchanda said.
At Two Brothers, Shetty said the company had not taken a price increase despite higher commodity costs. “Cocoa cost jumped 48 per cent quarter-on-quarter, yet most FMCG firms have taken minimal increases, but Pluckk is yet to take a price increase and plans to hold through the festive months. Everyone’s eating the cost to protect volume right now; that’s a quarter’s strategy, not a year’s,” he said.
Manchanda said companies were similarly prioritising festive volumes and were willing to absorb some margin pressure. “The current industry commentary is quite clear that companies are prioritising volume through the festive season and are willing to carry some margin pressure to do that,” he said.
However, he said companies were likely to reassess pricing after the festive period depending on commodity prices, demand and margin pressures. “Pricing decisions will probably be much more calibrated than simply passing on the entire commodity increase,” he said.
Shetty said consumers were ultimately becoming more conscious of the value they receive for their spending. “Our experience says the Indian consumer, at least in the segment we play in, is value-conscious, not price-conscious – they’re weighing what they get for what they pay,” he said.
Published on September 22, 2026
