New Delhi: A storm is brewing in Azerbaijan. Baku, once confident in its growing global ties, now finds itself nervously glancing over its shoulder towards India. The tension began after Azerbaijan stood shoulder to shoulder with Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. While New Delhi was striking terror camps, Islamabad launched a desperate counter. And in that moment, Turkey and Azerbaijan openly took the latter.
India has not forgotten. And now, fear has crept into the statements coming out of Azerbaijan. Fahad Mammadov, a political expert from Baku, has started issuing strange public remarks. His voice carries a mix of defiance and worry. “Even if India stops buying our oil,” he said, “our economy will not suffer.”
But the timing of this comment says more than the words. It comes right after India signalled it could reconsider its billion-dollar oil imports from the Caspian nation.
Mammadov knows what is coming. He even admitted that India is expanding its diplomatic reach to exert pressure on countries like Pakistan and now, by association, Azerbaijan. “India wants symbolic and regional victories. But trying to blame Pakistan’s friends won’t work,” he said.
His frustration is obvious. So is his fear. India and Azerbaijan trade over $1 billion annually. Most of that is oil. Losing India as a buyer would hurt, no matter what Mammadov claims. He says Azerbaijan can reroute its oil, but adds, almost as a warning, that India could face penalties for breaking contracts.
The reality is Azerbaijan is nervous. Not just about trade but about consequences. And that nervousness is beginning to show in its public posturing.
India, meanwhile, has moved closer to Armenia, Azerbaijan’s arch-enemy. A recent report by Indian Aerospace Defence News revealed that Armenia signed a $720 million deal to buy Indian weapons, including the powerful Akash-1S air defence system.
The message to Baku is loud and clear. And it has rattled them.
Retired Turkish Brigadier General Hüseyin Karoz called this weapons deal a serious threat to Azerbaijan. He even warned his country to remain alert.
Azerbaijan has been locked in a decades-long territorial dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. India’s growing ties with Yerevan are a strategic blow.
And Azerbaijan knows it. So now, it lashes out – hoping words will undo what actions have set in motion.
But New Delhi remains quiet. Watching. Calculating. Waiting. And the message from India’s side is unspoken but clear – you chose your side. Be ready for what comes next.
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