The Iranian government is becoming weaker because it’s losing support from some of its allies in West Asia. However, Israel doesn’t seem to be focused on removing Iran’s top leadership. There’s a clear reason for this restraint.
The Trump government once warned Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu not to go after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Doing so could have triggered a much bigger war in the region—one that would be hard to control and end quickly.
Another reason is that the United States, especially through its intelligence agency—the CIA—has learned from past experience that trying to remove a government (called “regime change”) doesn’t always lead to something better. In fact, it can sometimes make things worse.
This has happened many times in Latin America. For example, the U.S. supported the removal of leaders in countries like Chile, Guatemala, and Nicaragua during the Cold War. But these changes often led to military rule, violence, and long periods of suffering for the people. So, the U.S. knows that forcing regime change can backfire badly.
Israel’s sudden attacks on Iran on June 13 were not just aimed at destroying nuclear and missile sites. The strikes also killed some of Iran’s top military leaders, including those from the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
Following these attacks, reports say that the U.S. asked Israel not to go after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, after learning about a serious plan to target him.
Israeli officials dismissed the news about plans to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader, calling it “false.” However, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that even if removing Iran’s leadership wasn’t the main goal, it could still happen as a result of the ongoing conflict—because, according to him, Iran’s government is already “very weak.”
The warning from U.S. President Donald Trump to Netanyahu about not targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, wasn’t just to avoid a bigger war in the Middle East. Trump has also been working hard to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran—different from the one he cancelled during his first term.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran have gone on for several rounds, but now there’s doubt about whether Iran still wants to continue. Some news reports, including from The Hindu Business Line, say that Iran believes the Trump administration may have secretly supported Israel’s attacks—making Iran more hesitant to trust the U.S. in future talks.
Netanyahu’s claim that Iran’s government is “very weak” may not be fully accurate when it comes to the country’s internal political control. Inside Iran, the leadership still seems to have a firm grip. However, Iran’s overall power in the region has indeed taken a hit.
This weakening is mainly because Iran has lost influence over its close allies—Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon—both of which have suffered heavy damage in recent conflicts. These groups, often called Iran’s “proxies,” used to help Iran extend its reach in West Asia, but now their reduced strength has hurt Iran’s position in the region.
The situation worsened significantly when Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, reportedly fled from Damascus. This was a big loss for Iran because Syria was one of the few strong allies Iran still had in the region. Losing that support has weakened Iran’s influence even more.
On top of these geopolitical setbacks, Iran is also struggling with a huge financial burden—reports say it has a debt of around $30 billion. This has made its economic situation even worse.
Israel’s leaders should not assume that killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei—who is already believed to be in poor health—will automatically bring about a change in Iran’s government.
Similarly, destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile sites is unlikely to spark a strong public uprising that can remove the religious leaders who have ruled the country since the Shah was overthrown in 1979. In simple terms, removing one leader or hitting a few military targets may not be enough to bring down a government that has been in power for over 40 years.
Even though there have been protests inside Iran in recent years and some critical comments from leaders living in exile, the opposition to the current government hasn’t been strong or united enough to become a real force for change.
Despite these challenges, by launching missiles at Israel, Iran’s leaders are trying to send a clear message to their own people—that they are still powerful and willing to take bold actions. It’s a way for the government to show it is strong and in control, despite the problems it faces both at home and abroad.
Looking at Iran’s history over the past 40 years, one thing is clear—religious hardliners have mostly remained in control. So, thinking that removing Ayatollah Khamenei will lead to a completely new kind of government might be unrealistic.
Furthermore, Israel has always been used as a common enemy by Iran’s leaders to unite people. So, it’s very unlikely that any new group of leaders in Tehran would agree to shut down their nuclear and missile programs—or stop making threats against Israel.
As the old saying goes, “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” In other words, even if leadership changes, the policies and attitudes might stay just as they are now.
(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. )
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