The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the country is set to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall this monsoon. Meanwhile, the weather office ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season.

“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 percent of the long-period average of 87 cm,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference. El Nino conditions, associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are unlikely to develop this time, he said.

The monsoon update from the weather department comes at a time when parts of the country are already battling extreme heat with a significantly high number of heat wave days expected in the April to June period. The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the country’s GDP.

Fifty-two percent of the net cultivated area relies on the primary rain-bearing system. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country. A prediction of normal rainfall during the monsoon season, therefore, comes as a huge relief to the nation.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system. Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

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