New Delhi: After decades of sourcing weapons and war machines from Russia, India is charting a new course. It is aimed squarely West. In what analysts are calling a tectonic shift, the world’s largest democracy is reducing its dependence on Russian arms. The shift is driven by rising quality concerns, supply chain delays and undeniable impact of the Ukraine war on Moscow’s military-industrial complex.
It is major opening for the United States and European defence giants – which are now competing for a bigger slice of India’s $100 billion defence modernisation pie. From fighter jets to submarines, India’s procurement patterns are changing fast. Just over a decade ago, around 76% of India’s defence imports came from Russia. By last year, that figure plunged to 36% (the lowest in over half a century), according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Speaking to Bloomberg and other news outlets, Indian officials expressed concerns over Russian equipment delays and the creeping influence of Chinese components in Moscow’s supply chain. Locked in a tense border standoff with Beijing, that is a red flag wrapped in a strategic emergency for India.
US and French defence suppliers are rolling out the red carpet. Multi-billion-dollar deals have been signed for drones, jet engines, howitzers and surveillance aircraft. The India-US defence pipeline is booming – 31 MQ-9B drones from General Atomics, co-production of GE-F414 jet engines with HAL and a new 10-year roadmap for military technology sharing sealed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-profile 2023 US visit.
Despite the defence pivot, India has not completely abandoned Moscow. Russian oil continues to flow to Indian ports, and legacy weapons still need spare parts. But India is playing the long game – betting on Western tech to modernise its forces while maintaining just enough ties with Russia to keep current systems operational.
Still, experts warn the window for Russian defence exports to India is closing fast. Russia’s future role in India’s arsenal will be mostly spare parts and nuclear submarines. That is a massive downgrade from being India’s primary arms supplier.
Under the newly inked U.S.-India defence framework, Washington has gone all in. Co-development projects, industrial tie-ups and technology transfers are now central to the relationship. India’s STA-1 status, which allows streamlined access to sensitive US tech remains intact, and defence exports from America are rising year after year.
As U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put it bluntly, “India is finally buying from the United States. That changes everything.”
The GE–HAL engine deal and the $3 billion drone purchase are just the beginning. Talks are underway for the co-production of Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stryker combat vehicles and more maritime surveillance aircraft. The goal is to develop a Made-in-India defence industry powered by Western innovation.
The important reason behind India’s urgency is China. With Beijing flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi is teaming up with the United States in joint naval exercises, anti-submarine warfare development and AI-driven battlefield technology.
Collaborations between Indian defence startups and US firms such as Anduril and Mahindra on autonomous systems are already in motion. The broader vision is building a defence tech ecosystem that fuses American scale with Indian ingenuity.
But hurdles remain. US export controls, IP restrictions and black-box components continue to pose challenge for Indian planners. Past efforts such as the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) stumbled over bureaucracy and lack of political will.
But the clock is ticking. With a $100 billion procurement budget and China’s aggression unrelenting, India needs results, not just MoUs. The newly launched INDUS-X initiative and the iCET tech alliance offer hope, but execution will be key.
Once the star supplier, Russia is slowly being sidelined. Led by the United States, the West is stepping in with big weapons, big money and even bigger ambitions. And in the middle, India is leveraging its market, military needs and geopolitical clout to build a defence future that is fast, flexible and free of Moscow’s grip.
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