Exit polls on Wednesday largely predicted wins for BJP-led alliances in Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections, with a few giving an edge to the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in Maharashtra. Counting of votes is set for November 23.
In the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, where 145 seats are needed for a majority, exit polls presented varying forecasts but mostly pointed towards a BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance win.
Matrize Exit Poll: Predicted 150-170 seats for the BJP-led Mahayuti, with a 48% vote share. It gave 110-130 seats to MVA (42%) and 8-10 seats to others (10%).
People’s Pulse: Estimated 175-195 seats for Mahayuti and 85-112 for MVA, with 7-12 seats going to others.
P-MARQ: Forecasted 137-157 seats for Mahayuti and 126-146 for MVA, with others securing 2-8 seats.
Electoral Edge: Differed, predicting 150 seats for MVA, 121 for Mahayuti, and 20 for others.
Poll Diary: Offered a wide range, giving NDA 122-186 seats, MVA 69-121, and others 12-29.
Chanakya Strategies: Predicted Mahayuti winning 152-160 seats, MVA 130-138, and others 6-8.
Lokshahi Rudra: Estimated a tight race with Mahayuti at 128-142 seats, MVA at 125-140, and others at 18-23.
Lokpoll: Gave MVA an edge with 151-162 seats, predicting 115-128 seats for Mahayuti and 5-14 for others.
The Election Commission criticized the methodology of some exit polls, noting past instances where predictions were far from accurate.
In Jharkhand’s 81-member Assembly, where the majority mark is 41, exit polls predicted a close contest.
Estimated 42-47 seats for NDA, 25-30 for the INDIA bloc, and 0-4 for others.
Gave NDA 44-53 seats, INDIA bloc 25-37, and others 5-9.
Contradicted others, predicting a Congress-JMM victory with 49-59 seats, NDA getting 17-27, and others 3. Axis MyIndia also forecasted a 45% vote share for the INDIA bloc and 37% for NDA.
Predicted NDA leading with 42 seats, narrowly followed by the INDIA bloc at 38 and one seat for others.
Axis MyIndia withheld its predictions for Maharashtra, promising results on Thursday.
Exit polls also suggested BJP dominance in the nine assembly bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, with the party expected to win 5-7 seats.
The diverse range of predictions highlights the uncertainty of outcomes, especially in Maharashtra, where alliances have complicated the battle. Jharkhand seems less ambiguous, with most polls leaning towards an NDA win, except for Axis MyIndia’s divergent forecast.
Delhi University’s Centre for Global Studies also conducted surveys, supporting the view that Mahayuti and NDA have an edge. Critics, however, continue to question the reliability of exit polls. “Exit polls have often missed the mark in the past,” an Election Commission official noted.
As voting outcomes are finalized on November 23, these predictions set the stage for a riveting contest in both states.
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