Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav is in Delhi to hold crucial seat-sharing talks with Congress and is likely to meet Mallikarjun Kharge with regard to the Bihar elections due in November. A high-stakes battle is expected to take place in Bihar, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA); consisting of Janata Dal (United) led by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, and the Bharatiya Janata Party fighting against the alliance consisting of Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and left parties.
While RJD MP Manoj Jha said that this meeting will discuss seat-sharing and the alliance between the two parties, there are clamours that the RJD should look beyond Congress. The grand old party’s performance has not been up to the mark for the last four polls. The lower strike rate has hurt the performance of the Mahagathbandhan, an alliance of RJD, Congress and Left.
In the 2010 Bihar assembly polls, the Congress had contested all 243 seats but won just four with a vote percentage of little over 8%. In the 2015 assembly polls, when Nitish Kumar parted ways with the BJP and his party JDU joined RJD-Congress in Mahagathbandhan, the Congress contested 41 seats and won 27 seats with a vote share of around 6.7%. In the 2020 assembly polls when Nitish returned to the NDA, the Congress contested 70 seats and won 19 with around 9% vote share.
When it comes to the Lok Sabha elections, Congress contested 12 seats of the total 40 and won just two while the RJD got four in the 2014 Parliamentary polls. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress contested nine seats bagging just one while the RJD drew a blank. In the 2024 parliamentary polls when the NDA faced a united opposition against the allegations of attempts to change the constitution and end reservation, Congress won three seats out of nine it contested.
The Congress party’s performance in the Bihar Assembly polls remains dismal and its lower strike rate has proved to be a curse for the RJD. The Rashtriya Janata Dal, under Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership, has emerged as the single largest party in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls. Tejashwi still draws massive crowds and commands a big support among the voters. With Pashupati Paras parting ways with the NDA, Tejashwi may look to contest the Bihar assembly polls with Left parties [CPI(ML)L, CPI, CPI(M)], Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party and Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) while keeping the Congress aside.
The Congress party’s vote share without RJD may not go beyond 5 per cent and this may help Tejashwi get a better chance to win the seats lost after being allocated to Congress. Without Congress, RJD stands a chance to perform better. On the other hand, Congress may also look to help its ally RJD by seeking a lesser number of seats in the seat-sharing, if defeating the BJP is the only goal. Congress should ask for only those seats which it had either won or lost by a very thin margin. Handing over the rest of the seats to the RJD may brighten the chance of Mahagathbandhan’s victory.
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