India’s reliance on coal-fired power plants could rise in the next 6-7 months as the impact of El Niño effect, which led to lower wind and hydro power generation, coupled with rising demand for cooling could push up power demand.
El Niño, which is characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, can alter weather patterns and generally leads to falling wind velocity and below-normal rains adversely impacting wind and hydro power generation.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) pointed out that renewable energy generation typically rises during monsoons, supported by stronger wind speeds and seasonal hydropower availability. However, generation trends in July-September 2026 were affected by El Niño-related weather conditions.
Hydropower generation (small and large, including imports from Bhutan) decreased 14.4 per cent Y-o-Y in Q3 2026, it added.
“Looking ahead, weaker wind and hydropower output, combined with rising demand for air conditioning, could widen the gap between electricity demand and available supply by nearly 18 terawatt-hours (TWh) over a period of one year to June 2027. This potential shortfall could increase reliance on thermal power generation to meet demand,” said IEEFA’s Saloni Sachdeva Michael, Charith Konda and Kaira Rakheja in a recent commentary.
These risks highlight the importance of maintaining adequate and reliable electricity supply as demand grows. With fossil fuel-based generation increasing faster than renewable generation in Q3 2026, the availability of flexible resources, including energy storage and responsive power generation, will be important for managing weather-related variability and maintaining system reliability, they added.
Manoj Kumar, Analyst at the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told businessline in July 2026 that India faces a double challenge.
“Not only will falling winds and rainfall associated with El Niño cut India’s power generation from turbines and hydropower, but warmer temperatures will also drive up demand for power-hungry air conditioning. Additional cooling demand could total as much as 10 terawatt hour (TWh) within a year, the equivalent of a quarter of Delhi’s annual electricity use,” he anticipated.
He had pointed out that combining the lost output from renewables and the increased demand for power, India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh.
Crisil Intelligence recently said it expects India’s power demand to grow 10-11 per cent Y-o-Y to 1,885-1,895 billion units (BU) in FY27, supported by stronger cooling demand amid higher temperatures and below-normal rainfall linked to El Niño conditions.
Power demand surged around 22 per cent Y-o-Y in October 2026 to a record ~160 BU, driven by unusually high temperatures associated with El Niño, making it the highest October demand on record. Peak demand also increased roughly 24 per cent Y-o-Y to 261 gigawatt (GW).
Published on November 13, 2026
