The United States formally brought down the curtain on its military mission in Iraq on Wednesday, ending one of the major chapters of its presence in the Middle East in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.
This move comes at a crucial time in Middle East’s security history. On the day when Washington announced the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq, Pakistan has said that it would be using whatever means necessary to defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, thus invoking the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
This statement by Pakistan comes at a time when the Houthis have intensified their campaign in Yemen, threatening sstrategic territory and shipping routes around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is under pressure to work on its strained ties with the UAE so that it can draw UAE-linked forces in Yemen to counter the Houthi aggression.
These developments show that the Middle East is going through a transition, from more than two decades of an American-led order to now more regional systems on security based on their relationships with allies.
The US withdrawing from Iraq has officially ended Operation Inherest Resolve, which was initially launched in 2014 to defeat militants associated with ISIS.
Alhtough the US will not completely exit the Middle East and will retain a counterterrorism role, Iraq becomes notable since it will now have to create a balance between its government, the armed groups within the country that are aligned to Iran, and the remaining threat from the Islamic State.
Saudi Arabia, for decades, has depended on the US for its security, which included military protection, weapons, and intelligence. With the recent escalation in Yemen, Riyadh is realising that it cannot continue to depend on a single external security partner.
With the expanding presence of the Houthis, who have threatened Saudi territory as well as hampered maritime traffic around the Bab el-Mandeb, Riyadh entered into the security pact with Turkey and Pakistan. The first test of this alliance is now unfolding.
While Pakistan has pledged support for Saudi Arabia, it is crucial to note that it has deep economic and military ties with Iran. If they clash directly with the Houthis, it can have implications on Islamabad’s relationship with Tehran.
There is another complication for Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis. It may have to include actors with whom Riyadh has been at odds recently.
While the UAE and Saudi Arabia fought together in the Yemen War, their interests diverged over Yemen’s future, in parts owing to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and the question of southern separatism.
When Saudi forces moved against the group, it led to the UAE withdrawing from Yemen altogether.
However, the advancement of the Houthis has changed the strategic calculations altogether.
The Giant Brigades in Yemen, a Saudi-trained group, is one of the most significant anti-Houthi forces in Yemen. Thus Saudi Arabia will have to coordinate in close quarters with Abu Dhabi if it wants the Houthi aggression mitigated to a certain extent.
Thus, the new reality of Middle East looks like the region will have to increasingly build overlapping coalitions since no single power can guarantee their security everywhere.
