Tensions in the continue to soar as the US-Iran war nears its seventh month, stoking fears of a widening global energy crisis, with the world’s most crucial energy corridors now closing their doors.
The conflict, which began in late February after the and Israel launched a joint operation against Tehran and killed most of its leaders, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is slowly escalating into a wider regional conflict. Iran is retaliating against US attacks by targeting Washington’s bases in the region, while Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis have also been drawn into the escalating hostilities.
On Friday, the Houthis expanded their control of the , threatening a critical waterway for transporting Persian Gulf crude. This has now left fewer alternatives for the region, as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, once a primary oil transit point, remains significantly limited and far below pre-war levels, The New York Times reported.
Oil exports from , the Middle East’s leading oil producer, fell last month to their lowest level in more than 13 years. While the US Navy has been able to transit oil out of Hormuz along sea routes close to the coast of Oman, on the opposite side from Iran, doing so has required an extensive and dangerous operation.
For shipping companies, crossing the , which has been a point of contention in negotiations between the US and Iran, has now become a high-risk task. In July and August, at least 23 ships were attacked in the strait near Oman. Since the war began on 28 February, at least 22 sailors have been killed in the region.
After Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz following attacks from the US and , the Bab al-Mandab Strait became a backup route for transporting Middle East oil, especially for Saudi Arabia. However, the Houthis have now maintained a stronghold there after gaining control of the Red Sea port city of Mokha in Yemen, forcing forces allied with the Yemeni government out of the region. Just days earlier, the Houthis injured 73 civilians and hit energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, a maritime intelligence company, told The New York Times, “These waters aren’t safe.” The war, which is nearing its seventh month, now appears to be spinning out of control, raising concerns about the region being plunged into a wider military confrontation, according to analysts. With no diplomatic resolution in sight, the Middle East, a crucial hub for global energy supplies, is grappling with one of its worst supply disruptions in decades.
As the waterways become increasingly unsafe, only two Saudi cargoes were able to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait out of the Red Sea last week, according to data from Kpler, a maritime data company.
Riyadh can also use a Red Sea route to ship its oil by moving supplies north through a pipeline close to the Suez Canal. However, the Mediterranean route is more expensive and can lengthen the journey to Asia, the destination for most of Saudi Arabia’s oil buyers.
With key oil routes increasingly under threat and alternative corridors proving costly and difficult to navigate, the region’s energy crisis could deepen further unless a diplomatic solution brings stability to the waterways.
