The July disruption at Saudi Aramco’s Jazan Refinery, coupled with Russia’s diesel ban, appears to have opened up a lucrative window for Indian refiners, with exports of the key transport and industrial fuel to Europe rising to an estimated 120,000 barrels per day in August, with Reliance Industries (RIL) emerging as a major swing supplier of ultra low sulphur diesel.
Sources said that RIL with its dual-refinery set up addressing domestic and international markets offers the refiner logistical and operational edge to manage output yields, adjust crude processing and act as a fast swing supplier. RIL has also been a major supplier of winter grade diesel to Europe.
“The opportunity emerged last month as the 400,000 barrel per day (b/d) Jazan refinery was shut which coupled with Russia’s diesel ban offered an opportunity. This pushed diesel crack spreads, a measure of the refinery margins for diesel, rising to a record over $74 per barrel in the EU. Indian refiners had spare supplies as domestic consumption was low (around 7 million tonnes). Why would you not want to benefit from this and at a time when West Asia conflict has already stretched margins,” said one of the sources.
All these reasons improved the netbacks for Indian refiners, including RIL. Netback calculates the revenue generated from oil and gas sales against costs incurred to bring the product to market, the same source added.
A senior official with a PSU refiner said that this is not the first time such an opportunity arose. In September last year, India’s diesel exports to Europe surged to their highest level on record, at least in the last 6-7 years, creating significant demand for ultra low sulphur diesel from India. A similar situation also arose in March-April 2022 at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Kpler data showed that diesel exports surged to around 291,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September 2025, nearly double the August volume (169.8,000 b/d) and almost 4x June levels (74,500 b/d), making it the highest monthly flow to Europe since December 2023 (314,000 b/d).
Vortexa in a recent commentary said that one part of the eastern route still working normally runs through Bab-el-Mandeb, where diesel/gasoil transits bound for Europe reached 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) in August, close to the same number last year, after being close to a standstill in March and April. India supplied roughly 60 per cent of that volume.
India exported around 150,000-158,000 b/d of diesel to Europe in July 2026.
However, analysts anticipate that the diesel arbitrage may decline in the current month.
India imported around 21 million tonnes (mt) of crude oil in July and roughly 15-16 mt last month. This, coupled with the refinery maintenance season in India such as that at BPCL (around 6 mt per day capacity), will limit product output. Also, with the October-December consumption season a month away, refiners will not have much capacity to export. Also, Russia’s ban on diesel exports will end on September 30, said a refinery official.
It needs to be seen how long the upcoming refinery maintenance in Europe and the US lasts, which will have a bearing on prices. However, diesel crack spreads are likely to remain high, added the same official.
Published on September 9, 2026
