India’s pharmaceutical industry
is likely to miss its sales target for the end of the decade as
U.S. tariff uncertainty and Middle East shipping disruptions
weigh on exports, the head of a government-backed trade body
told Reuters.
The sector is now expected to reach $80 billion to $90
billion by 2030, well below an industry target of $130 billion
set in April last year, Namit Joshi, chairman of the
Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India, said.
He said the market was worth about $60 billion in the year
ended March 2026, comprising roughly $31 billion of exports and
$29 billion of domestic sales.
“April last year, we aspired to double the market size.
Given the geopolitical changes, the Middle East crisis and
everything, I don’t foresee us achieving that growth target,”
Joshi said in an interview last week.
The industry has come under pressure as Indian drug exports
face uncertainty over possible U.S. tariffs and longer shipping
routes after the conflict in West Asia forced cargoes to
avoid the Red Sea, raising freight costs and transit times.
Often called the “pharmacy of the world”, India is a major
supplier of generic medicines to the United States, accounting
for nearly half of all generic prescriptions filled in the U.S.
in 2022.
U.S. President Donald Trump said last month all imported
generic drugs would continue to face a 0 per cent tariff for two years
from August 1, after which the rate would rise to 100 per cent for one
year and 200% thereafter.
India’s pharmaceutical shipments to the United States fell
to about $9.7 billion in the financial year ended March 2026
from roughly $10.5 billion a year earlier, Joshi said, even as
overall pharma exports rose 2.13 per cent, helped by demand from Brazil
and Europe.
Joshi said annual industry growth could stay at 6 per cent to 10 per cent
over the next three years before moving into double digits as
higher-value products such as biosimilars and peptides gain
ground.
Rebuilding a manufacturing base in the United States would
take at least five years to establish a complete supply chain,
Joshi said, adding that Indian drugmakers would be unable to
absorb steep tariffs.
Published on August 4, 2026
