What is different this time? Many things.
First, in what would be called unforced errors in tennis, Mamata Banerjee has been fighting the wrong battle on the streets: the Election Commission. Whether it is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which went without incident in many states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Bihar, or the enforcement directorate’s raid on I-PAC (the Indian Political Action Committee which works with the Trinamool Congress on election strategy), Didi went for bare-knuckle fights. In the midst of the raid she barged in and took away some laptops which could have contained important data.
Now, the ED is livid, and seeking the Supreme Court’s help to restrain the West Bengal Chief Minister. The court with her antics. Nor was it happy when she wore her legal hat to appear in a case involving SIR, which the Supreme Court has allowed with some safeguards. The unforced error is this: Mamata Banerjee has spent most of the last few months fighting the Election Commission (her party has sought to impeach the Chief Election Commissioner, Gyanesh Kumar), not the BJP. Regardless of whether you think the Commission has been fair to all parties or not, this is not the fight she has to win. She has wasted time that she could have usefully spent wooing her electorate. She may be facing anti-incumbency after 15 years of uninterrupted rule during which West Bengal had done little to make itself attractive to investors who may bring jobs.
Second, unlike the last time, the BJP has not made any unforced error so far. It has chosen to attack the Trinamool’s rule, which includes the extortion-based political system that infuriates most ordinary Bengalis. The pejorative term used to describe the Trinamool’s rule is “tolamul”, which is a reference to the bribery-extortion structure that rhymes with “Trinamool”.
Third, instead of trying to attack Mamata personally, the BJP this time is trying to push her into a corner by fielding its strongest candidate, Suvendu Adhikari, who beat Mamata in his home constituency of Nandigram in 2021. This time he is challenging her in her home base of Bhabanipur in Kolkata. This is the playbook started by Arvind Kejriwal, who challenged Sheila Dikshit in her home constituency of New Delhi and defeated her in 2015. The BJP did the same to him 10 years later, when it fielded its strongest candidate against Kejriwal, Parvesh Verma, and defeated him. The BJP is fielding Suvendu from Bhobanipur in order to force her to spend more time defending her own seat when she could be campaigning more for her candidates elsewhere. Suvendu is also fighting from Nandigram, and if he wins from anywhere, and if the BJP crosses the half-way mark, he will be a shoo-in for Chief Ministership.
Fourth, Adhikari’s candidature in the heart of Kolkata, which is Trinamool’s fortress, sends a strong message to the voters, especially the “bhadralok”, that they now have a viable option to Trinamool. If the BJP manages to breach the fortress, it will be able to carry the momentum to all the neighbouring areas of north and south 24-Parganas. in Bhabanipur after the SIR exercise, and while some of them may be restored after the appeal process, the fact that many voters will have to wait till the last minute to get their names in sends its own subtle message: Mamata could not halt the process, and her writ may not run in future. Didi does have the clout she did in 2021.
Fifth, the momentum is now with the BJP, not the Trinamool. The, the only one currently available, gives 41-43 percent vote share to the BJP and 43-45 for Trinamool, with others getting 13-15 percent. In a tight race, where the final fight becomes a straight one between the two main contestants, the BJP would require a swing of only 2-3 percent from the “others” or even the Trinamool to cross the half-way mark. Since the fully committed vote can be assumed to be the minority vote and a segment of the Hindu vote, this battle will be won or lost among Hindus: the question is how much Mamata can retain of the Hindu vote. If 45 percent of the 70 percent non-minority vote swings to the BJP, Trinamool is toast. The West Bengal vote most closely resembles the 2004 general election, where the NDA led the opinion polls (but was slipping slowly) all the way to the election dates, but still managed to lose the crucial undecided vote. Trinamool is in just that situation, with Didi’s vote share probably overstated due to the fear factor ruling voters who may not want to openly say they are voting for the BJP.
Sixth, the Election Commission, which opted for a multi-phase poll in 2021, is now wiser after seeing the violence and intimidation that accompanied voting and results. It has realised that the thuggish elements linked to the Trinamool will get less of a chance to move freely between phases and intimidate more voters, With only two phases, 23 and 29 April this time, and with being deployed, this time the voter knows that the intimidation tactics will be kept at bay.
Last, the voter has learnt that Mamata Didi’s histrionics have not cut any ice with the Election Commission, and more specifically with the Supreme Court. None of her critical demands on SIR have been met, and the final appeal by voters whose names have been left out will be decided by judicial officers, against whom Didi cannot level any political accusations.
The voter knows that Didi’s recalcitrance has been the primary cause why so many voters have been left with so little time to appeal their cases, and she has failed in her filibustering tactics. She has lost the sense of invincibility she had earlier. And the public knows this.
Conclusion: the BJP has been presented with its best chance yet to unseat Mamata Banerjee. If it does not tactically mess up now, it has at least a 50 percent chance of winning. Of course, one survey does not decide whether BJP will win or lose, but if the voter finally sees a decent chance of change, she may grab it. The BJP, for its part, must make it clear to the electorate how it will handle the “tolamul” gangs and the subversion of the state machinery by non-state muscle actors during Didi’s rule. If it wins, it must also prepare for Didi to take to the streets at the first opportunity – which is what she does best. It must keep the post-poll scenario in mind, and not just the 4 May finishing post.
